Financial Position
Future Perspectives
Bayer Links
Investor Relations
Management Report
Future Perspectives
Economic outlook
The global economy is in a deep recession, and we do not yet see any sign of a sustained economic recovery.
We now anticipate only moderate growth of about 3% in the pharmaceutical market in 2009. While there is a loss of momentum in the United States and the major European countries, the emerging markets continue to show steady growth. We basically anticipate a continuing positive trend in the consumer health markets, although 2009 will be adversely affected by the general state of the economy.
We expect the global seed and crop protection market to continue its positive development, albeit with markedly lower growth rates than in 2008. Farmers in general should continue to benefit from attractive prices for plant-based raw materials compared to the long-term average, as well as from low energy and fertilizer costs.
With the global economic crisis likely to continue weighing heavily on the main customer industries of MaterialScience – the automotive, construction, electrical and furniture sectors – in the coming months, we expect a very difficult market environment for this subgroup in 2009 as a whole.
We now anticipate only moderate growth of about 3% in the pharmaceutical market in 2009. While there is a loss of momentum in the United States and the major European countries, the emerging markets continue to show steady growth. We basically anticipate a continuing positive trend in the consumer health markets, although 2009 will be adversely affected by the general state of the economy.
We expect the global seed and crop protection market to continue its positive development, albeit with markedly lower growth rates than in 2008. Farmers in general should continue to benefit from attractive prices for plant-based raw materials compared to the long-term average, as well as from low energy and fertilizer costs.
With the global economic crisis likely to continue weighing heavily on the main customer industries of MaterialScience – the automotive, construction, electrical and furniture sectors – in the coming months, we expect a very difficult market environment for this subgroup in 2009 as a whole.
Bayer Group sales and earnings forecast
For HealthCare and CropScience we continue to expect a positive trend in 2009, with growth in sales and EBITDA before special items. HealthCare plans to achieve currency-adjusted growth rates ahead of the market average in all divisions. We aim to further improve the EBITDA margin before special items toward 28%. CropScience plans to continue expanding sales in a generally favorable market environment. We aim to maintain the EBITDA margin before special items at the high level of about 25%.
The drop in sales and earnings at MaterialScience in the first quarter of 2009 turned out to be even steeper than we had expected. However, sales stabilized at a low level in the first three months. The downturn thus seems to be bottoming out, and first signs of a modest recovery in demand are appearing. We expect this subgroup to improve sales and earnings in the second quarter of this year compared with the first quarter and are targeting positive EBITDA before special items for the full year.
Against this background, we believe our aim of limiting the decline in Group EBITDA before special items to 5% to be increasingly demanding, though still achievable if there is a tangible recovery in the MaterialScience business. However, we no longer consider it possible to match the prior-year figure, still less to improve upon it.
We expect Group sales for the full year to be in the region of €32 billion.
We have budgeted for special charges in the region of €250 million related to our ongoing restructuring programs.
We now expect to make capital expenditures of €1.4 billion. We estimate depreciation and amortization at about €2.8 billion, including €1.3 billion in depreciation of property, plant and equipment. Research and development expenses are planned to rise to approximately €2.9 billion.
We expect to reduce net financial debt toward €10 billion in 2009, helped by the conversion of the mandatory convertible bond into equity upon maturation in June 2009 and an improvement in net cash flow. This forecast does not take into account any possible portfolio changes.
The drop in sales and earnings at MaterialScience in the first quarter of 2009 turned out to be even steeper than we had expected. However, sales stabilized at a low level in the first three months. The downturn thus seems to be bottoming out, and first signs of a modest recovery in demand are appearing. We expect this subgroup to improve sales and earnings in the second quarter of this year compared with the first quarter and are targeting positive EBITDA before special items for the full year.
Against this background, we believe our aim of limiting the decline in Group EBITDA before special items to 5% to be increasingly demanding, though still achievable if there is a tangible recovery in the MaterialScience business. However, we no longer consider it possible to match the prior-year figure, still less to improve upon it.
We expect Group sales for the full year to be in the region of €32 billion.
We have budgeted for special charges in the region of €250 million related to our ongoing restructuring programs.
We now expect to make capital expenditures of €1.4 billion. We estimate depreciation and amortization at about €2.8 billion, including €1.3 billion in depreciation of property, plant and equipment. Research and development expenses are planned to rise to approximately €2.9 billion.
We expect to reduce net financial debt toward €10 billion in 2009, helped by the conversion of the mandatory convertible bond into equity upon maturation in June 2009 and an improvement in net cash flow. This forecast does not take into account any possible portfolio changes.
Bookmark this page
E-mail this page
Advanced Search
